Delivering the next decade of onshore wind: From development to route to market and beyond

As one of the most cost-effective forms of renewable energy, onshore wind is playing a major role in delivering against clean power targets, cutting bills for consumers and strengthening UK energy security.  

Discussions at Onshore Wind Conference 2026 reflected the significant progress made over the past year, with a growing project pipeline, strong government support and increasing recognition of onshore wind's role as one of the UK's lowest-cost renewable technologies. However, uncertainty around grid infrastructure, planning, transmission charging and future energy policy continues to impact investment confidence and the pace of deployment. The clear message throughout the event was that delivering 2030 ambitions, and sustaining growth beyond them, will depend on greater certainty around targets, timelines and policy direction.

The sector today

Over the past year, the onshore wind sector has seen significant growth and investment. The Contracts for Difference Allocation Round 7 (CfD AR7) delivered a record high year for onshore wind, with 1.3GW of capacity awarded, while the project pipeline surpassed 50GW across all stages of development, representing a 6.5% increase compared to this time last year in September 2025.

And, while Scotland remains the centre of activity, accounting for 75% of pipeline capacity, the lifting of the de facto ban in England has also encouraged positive progress, with 233MW of onshore wind capacity submitted to the planning system since.

The overall sentiment at the conference was that we are in a period of some of the strongest policy and government support in years. Yet turning this growing pipeline into operational capacity remains the industry's biggest challenge.

From planning to investment

Throughout the conference, it was highlighted that the UK remains an attractive investment environment. But, maintaining investor confidence requires certainty and transparency around timelines, policy direction and network infrastructure.

Grid connections were a key topic of conversation. While the Gate 2 reforms were designed to create greater certainty, long delays, a backlog of applications and rising development costs continue to create challenges for developers. Projects can spend years carrying development costs without confidence on when, or even whether, they will connect, making it investment decisions increasingly difficult.

The Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP) was also front and centre, with developers looking to the SSEP to give a steer on the future trajectory of the energy system. However, until the chosen pathway is confirmed, many felt uncertainty around the plan is stifling investment decisions and project development.

As Marcus Trinick, planning and environmental lawyer, noted: "Above all, the SSEP must bring clarity and certainty. I know that already investment decisions for onshore wind farms in Scotland are being affected by the uncertainties of the SSEP."

Improving consenting timelines, accelerating grid connections, reforming transmission charging and providing long-term certainty through the SSEP will all be essential if projects are to progress at the pace required.

Securing a route to market

While planning and grid certainty determine whether projects can move forward, developers also need confidence that completed projects will have a viable route to market.

Routes to market remain fundamental to securing investment, providing long-term certainty and making revenues financeable. Several speakers highlighted that a strong route to market strategy is one of the factors that makes an onshore wind project attractive to investors.

While CfD remains the preferred route for many new-build projects, developers are increasingly taking a portfolio approach. Combining CfD-backed projects with merchant PPAs can help spread risk, improve resilience and maximise long-term returns.

And, when entering into a PPA, contract flexibility was highlighted as increasingly important. As projects and the energy landscape around them evolve over time, the route to market arrangements must be able to evolve with them. Key considerations included:

• Excused delay provisions to accommodate grid, planning or supply chain delays.
• Flexibility to incorporate future co-location opportunities or participation in ancillary service markets.
• Robust change-of-law provisions.
• Flexibility around assignment and changes of ownership.

The ability to balance long-term certainty with commercial flexibility was viewed as increasingly valuable as the market continues to evolve.

Bringing new life to existing assets

Discussions did not focus solely on bringing forward new projects. Once a project approaches end of life, developers face the decision to extend their life, decommission, or repower. I touched on the opportunities behind repowering last year, and one year on, with many projects nearing the end of their operational life and ROC sites approaching the end of subsidy support, repowering is rapidly moving from a future consideration to an immediate opportunity.

Repowering provides an opportunity to bring new life to a site and scale renewable output, utilising existing grid connections, land agreements, community relationships and strong wind resource. However, speakers stressed that successful repowering requires significant planning, preparation and stakeholder engagement.

Looking to 2030 and beyond

Whether developing new projects or extending the life of existing ones, a key question ran throughout the conference: what does the future of the sector look like beyond 2030?

The UK Government wants onshore wind capacity in England and Wales to grow from 4.2GW to 8.6GW by 2030, while the Scottish Onshore Wind Sector Deal includes a commitment to reach 20GW of operational capacity. However, a recurring message was that momentum must continue beyond 2030 if the sector is to maintain supply chain confidence and continue to attract investment.

As questions were raised around what life after CfD could look like, how projects coming off the ROC scheme will be supported and whether alternative models such as a wholesale CfD could emerge in the future, Stephen Gethins, Minister for Europe, External Affairs and Energy reinforced the need for a longer-term perspective, “Decisions made now on supply chain and delivery do not stop at the end of the decade, and so neither should government support”.

The conference demonstrated that the UK is not short of ambition, projects or investment capital, but the challenge now is converting that momentum into operational capacity. The industry is looking for targeted actions, clear timelines and policy certainty to support investment through the next decade, and actions now will determine what that future looks like.