Price cap rise now ‘unavoidable’

A rise in the next domestic price cap is now “pretty much unavoidable” but significant uncertainty remains about how high it will go, according to analysts.

Cornwall Insight’s latest forecasts for the July cap now stand at £1,929 per year for a typical dual‑fuel household, a rise of £288 or 18% on the April 2026 level of £1,641.

Dr Craig Lowrey, Principal Consultant at Cornwall Insight, said infrastructure damage and continued disruption to marine traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are limiting the potential for any meaningful wholesale price fall.

“As a result, some of the increase is already effectively baked in. A rise in July is pretty much unavoidable, but how high prices go remains to be seen.”

Lowrey said there were no shortcuts to long-term energy price stability.

“The fundamental solution lies in reducing dependence on the gas wholesale market, and that transition demands both investment and time.”