2018/19 Triads Confirmed, So What Next?

Earlier this week, National Grid published the confirmed Winter 2018/19 Triad periods. In this blog, Business Development Manager for Asset Optimisation, Lisa Bunting, looks at the savings businesses would have made from reducing their consumption during these peak periods and how they can take the next steps to make the most of their flexibility.

Triads are the three highest half hourly periods of demand usually between 4pm-7pm throughout November to February. These three half hourly periods cover the cost of running the transmission network, also known as Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) charges.

Triad Periods confirmed

National Grid have confirmed the three Triad periods for winter 2018 occurred on:
• 22nd November 2018, 17:00-17:30, with peak demand hitting 45.28 GW, 
• 10th December 2018, 17:00-17:30, where peak demand reached just over 45 GW, 
• 23rd January 2019, 17:30-18:00, where the highest level of peak demand for this winter was recorded at 46.87GW.

This peak figure represents a reduction of around 1.6GW on the highest demand recorded for winter 2017 (48.5GW). The reduction has been caused by both ‘demand destruction’ where users are either removing or shifting peak load, and continued deployment of embedded generators helping to reduce the strain on the transmission network.

With our Triad warning service, we successfully notified our customers ahead of all these three confirmed triads periods. Our Energy Management Centre send a text or email notification to our customers when they predict a possible, likely, or very likely triad, so they can take action to reduce demand.

TNUoS costs set to rise for Winter 2019

Last winter, TNUoS charges were sitting between £30-£55/kW, depending on the location of your business.

The final 2019/20 TNUoS tariffs have now been published by National Grid, and from this, our in-house pricing team are predicting big swings in value with the exception of the two Scottish regions.

According to our latest forecasts, most regions will be paying more in TNUoS charges next winter (about 4% on average) with London being the most expensive region - this area’s TNUoS costs could rise from £55/kW in winter 17/18, to around £60/kW in winter 2020. Looking further in to the future, we only predict Triads becoming more expensive, regardless of where you might be located across the country, so there are significant savings to be made from actively avoiding triad periods in order to manage this cost.

What Next?

With Ofgem’s Targeted Charging Review set to come into effect by 2021, there are plans to introduce fixed charges for Triads, which could have a big impact on the value of these cost saving opportunities. As a result, consumers are already looking at other ways to replace these cost savings with revenues from suitable Balancing Services and short-term wholesale market opportunities.

Last week I hosted a webinar with our Head of Asset Trading, Simon Kneale, which covered how businesses can take the next steps to make the most of their flexibility, looking at revenue streams in the energy markets and balancing services in more detail.

There’s no silver bullet to avoiding rising costs, or to future-proofing your business in this ever-changing energy landscape. But looking at how you can make money from the flexibility you have within your business is one way you can become a smarter energy consumer.

We are working with our customers to achieve economic benefits from simply adjusting the way they consume energy with our Managed Flexibility service, which is available from this winter. We are encouraging businesses to register their interest now and book in a site survey, so they can start seeing value from October this year.

If you are interested in this service, please get in touch.