New emissions targets set by governments have brought down projected end of century warming by 0.2 degrees centigrade, according to analysis.
According to the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), warming under its “optimistic scenario” - which assumes full implementation of all net zero targets put in place by countries - has dropped to 2˚C.
The lobby group said it was clear that the Paris Agreement is driving change and spurring governments into adopting stronger targets.
However, it warned that there is still some way to go, “especially given that most governments don’t yet have policies in place to meet their pledges”.
The biggest contributors to the drop in projected warming are the US, the EU27, China and Japan although China and Japan did not yet formally submit a new 2030 target to the UN. The UK has announced a stronger 2035 target, Canada announced a new target, South Africa has an increased target under public consultation and Argentina has announced a further strengthening of the target it submitted last December.
Niklas Höhne of NewClimate Institute, a CAT partner, said: “The wave towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions is unstoppable. The long-term intentions are good. But only if all governments flip into emergency mode and propose and implement more short-term action, global emissions can still be halved in the next 10 years as required by the Paris Agreement.”