Posted on: 16/04/2019
The UK looks set to miss its carbon dioxide emission reduction targets by a wider margin than previously feared.
The latest report from the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) revealed that the country is forecast to exceed its Fourth Carbon Budget by 5.6% and its Fifth by 9.6%.
The gaps have worsened since last year’s report, due in part to improvements in the computer models used by BEIS.
Yet several UK Government policies – including the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation, the Renewable Heat Incentive and the Energy Company Obligation – are expected to deliver fewer savings than intended originally.
Outweighing recent efforts
The projected increase in emissions outweighs the savings from new policies such as Boiler Plus, the Streamlined Energy & Carbon Reporting for Business rules, and the Industrial Heat Recovery Support scheme.
The report added: “Our uncertainty analysis excludes the electricity supply industry and possible ‘structural breaks’ in society or the economy which might significantly affect emissions."
“For example, societal and behavioural step changes or breakthrough technologies like improved storage could have profound impacts on our energy mix and emissions but are hard to anticipate.”