The E3G think tank has analysed four possible scenarios covering the UK’s exit from the European Union (EU).

Its “Sovereign Transition”, “Hostile Nationalism” and “EU in Chaos” scenarios produce “very negative” outcomes on energy and climate issues for both the UK and the EU.

“Any restricted access to the Internal Energy Market (IEM) for the UK increases energy prices and creates access issues for EU member states such as Ireland,” E3G warned.

“There is significant investment uncertainty and the UK’s withdrawal disrupts implementation of the EU 2030 Climate and Energy Package and the Energy Union.”

Co-operation track urged

Under the “Economic Transition” scenario, continued cooperation is maximised, providing stability for continued investment and delivery of existing programmes.

But the think tank believes the “Economic Transition” scenario is currently less likely than the “Sovereign Transition” or “Hostile Nationalism” outcomes.

E3G recommends that the UK and EU establish a “co-operation track” on the issues of energy and climate change.

“By creating a space to discuss future co-operation on energy, climate change and broader environmental objectives both sides can increase outcomes for these policy areas and reduce the chance of a crash Brexit that would damage everyone,” it added.

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